Recently in Giuliani Category

ED MORRISSEY ENDORSES Mitt Romney for President, and I've got to say I think Morrissey focuses on the central issue in the upcoming Presidential election, competence in executive leadership.  True executive competence in the Presidency is something the country has sorely lacked.  The problem is a long standing one.  It's hard to think of anyone during my life time whose shown really first rate executive competence in the White House.  But this incompetence usually fails to register with the public.  Things are different with the current Republican President -- the failures of Katrina and Iraq have galvanized public opinion.  So after 8 years of the widely perceived executive incompetence of a Republican President, the biggest advantage a GOP candidate can have going into November is the real promise of providing fundamental change in the White House from the current incompetence to proven executive experience and success.  And the glaring contrast between from the highly successful Mitt Romney, and the never-run-anything candidates Hillary and Barrack couldn't be more stark.

A side note.  One reason Fred Thompson would not have been a great candidate against the Democrats is his demonstrated lack of executive ability as shown in the current campaign.  By contrast, during the current campaign Mitt Romney as shown all sorts of executive talents -- including the ability to course correct mid-stream as conditions change.   A skill it looks like Rudy Giuliani certainly could have used.

I'VE TALKED ABOUT HUCKABEE'S role as McCain's wingman in South Carolina.  It looks like Romney may have his own wingman in Florida -- assuming current polls are reliable and Romney is surging in Florida (a perhaps risky assumption).  Giuliani is smacking McCain hard like only a New Yorker can do with hits like this.  If Giuliani were a bit more conservative he'd be my pick for the nomination -- we need a Republican leader of temper and caliber to lead the charge against the left.  If Rudy stages a late comeback and helps crush McCain in Florida, I wouldn't be unhappy.

I'M WITH ROSS DOUTHAT.  This is a two man race -- Romney vs. McCain.  Mike Huckabee can hardly get a vote outside of the "evangelical" population, and his real role now is wingman for John McCain. Giuliani, on the other hand, is crashing around the country.  Hunter is out, Fred will be out.  Paul is a non-factor.  Enough summary, here are some details other pundits have missed:

• John McCain lost to Huckabee among GOP voters in South Carolina.  McCain has yet to carry the Republican vote in any state.  Think about that for a minute.
  
• John McCain continues to do extremely well with those having a negative feeling about the Bush Presidency -- without the huge margin McCain got from these voters he would have been a loser in South Carolina
• Half of all South Carolina GOP voters believe that illegal aliens should be deported and they should not be given amnesty -- 25% of those folks voted for John McCain, who ran as the anti-illegal immigrant candidate in South Carolina.
• McCain again swept the geezer vote in South Carolina -- if the vote were up to those under 60 John McCain would have lost.
  
• John McCain is despised in much in his home region -- the West -- where he's been utterly crushed twice by Mitt Romney.
• Mormons were one-quarter of the vote in Nevada -- and 95% of them voted for Romney.  I'm thinking that's better than John Kennedy did with Catholics in 1960.
  
• Eight percent of Nevada GOP caucusers were Hispanic -- Romney defeated McCain almost 2-1 among these voters.
• Mitt Romney has a real Mormon problem.  The only part of the country he is taking by big margins are historically tolerant Western states where most folks have neighbors who are Mormon.  In large numbers "evangelical" Christians are voting on religious grounds. They explicitly tell pollsters that the religion of a candidate matters to them, and they are voting for Huckabee, McCain, Thompson -- just about anybody but Mitt Romney.  Romney gets half of the votes from the "born again" as he gets from voters of other religious identification -- a pattern you see with no other candidate.
• Huckabee continues in his failure to pull much of a vote outside of the "evangelical" population.  In South Carolina Huckabee was tied for 3rd place behind even Mitt Romney among voters who were not self-identified as "born again".
  

Nevada exit poll results are here.  South Carolina exit polls are here.

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MCAIN LEADS ROMNEY 24% - 17% in California says Rasmussen.  The significance of this comes from the fact that we're already voting out here in California  --  I cast my ballot yesterday by mail, others are voting in person at polling stations across the state.  Voting doesn't begin in California on Super Tuesday -- it merely comes to an end here on Super Tuesday. 

Here's some good news for Romney: "Sixty-three percent (63%) of Romney's supporters are certain they will vote for him. That's a far higher level of commitment than any other candidate enjoys. Just 45% of McCain's supporters are that "certain" along with 54% of those who support Thompson, 45% of Huckabee voters, and 36% of Giuliani fans."  I'd say that is open room for a Romney upset in California.  Early voters are more likely to be "certain" voters -- and conservative talk radio here in California is already going to work on McCain, beating him up especially as both wrong and dishonest on the most important issue facing California, illegal immigration.

Giuliani has dropped off a cliff here in California, falling from far out in front to 5th place at only 11% support, with only 1 in 3 of these "certain" they'll actually vote Giuliani.   If you don't have support on the influential talk radio stations, it takes major money to move opinion in California, and I very much doubt Giuliani will have the sort of cash required to do much to move his numbers.  Guiliani is perceived as weak on illegal immigration, and  he's getting little support on the radio or from conservative opinion leaders.  A Schwarzenegger endorsement might help Guiliani, but all bets are on a McCain endorsement from Schwarzenegger at some point just before Super Tuesday.  Why Schwarzenegger has held out this long is anyone's guess -- unless the snark about Schwarzenegger impending switch to the Democrat party is actually in the works.  With Schwarzenegger even dumber things have happened.  My  working assumption is that Schwarzenegger is trying to set up a  Senate seat for himself, so whatever would best serve that end is what you'll find him doing.  I'm not sure how that plays in terms of the Presidential primary.  Maybe no endorsement at all in the primary would be what is best for Arnold.  If it is, that's what he'll do.