in Washington State need to fire their party chairman. We can't let "statistical analysis" done by a moron determine the outcome of political contests.
What most people don't understand is that the "science" part of statistics is the pure logic of the math, all else is background knowledge, good judgment, tacit understanding -- all of it subject to constant revision not on strict scientific grounds, but on the grounds of trial-and-error gained wisdom, wise guessing and a bit of luck. So remember this, when someone tells you they have a "scientific" poll, what they are staying is that they are using correct math -- and they've got a lot of hard-won wisdom and judgment under their belt that has everything to do with a personally achieved background understanding, and nothing to do with "science". And a political hack with a dog in the race isn't someone who has any of that.
What most people don't understand is that the "science" part of statistics is the pure logic of the math, all else is background knowledge, good judgment, tacit understanding -- all of it subject to constant revision not on strict scientific grounds, but on the grounds of trial-and-error gained wisdom, wise guessing and a bit of luck. So remember this, when someone tells you they have a "scientific" poll, what they are staying is that they are using correct math -- and they've got a lot of hard-won wisdom and judgment under their belt that has everything to do with a personally achieved background understanding, and nothing to do with "science". And a political hack with a dog in the race isn't someone who has any of that.
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